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Is it a blessing or a curse for the market to increase the price of steel?
Source: Date:2016-03-20
That is why contrarian up? Data show, steel benchmark price of 3745 yuan / ton, compared with the first month cumulative up to 147 yuan / ton, or 4.09%. According to the end of April survey results show the mentality of the market, whether it is steel raw material or confidence, confidence is lower than 50, to clarify the trend of market, and in May the building materials market is regarded as a contrarian up the market, so the market focus is higher the price will continue on the market in terms of price a blessing or a curse?
Firstly, we analyze the main factors of the price of a pull up, the following points: first, market resources tight, local building materials distribution specification is difficult to push the price pull up, to the north and East is the most obvious, mainly affected by two factors: one is to contain, cancel bar, two is a period with one way the meeting, local manufacturers to limit production cause resource supply co.. Second, futures continued to repair this week once again break the futures premium, 3100 yuan / ton to 3200 yuan / ton high stage, the cash transaction support mentality. Third, the market inventory continued to fall, according to inventory data showed that last weekend, the country's major cities rebar 4 million 720 thousand and 300 tons of social stock, the chain continued to drop 271 thousand tons.
Secondly, under the above factors to see a future market impact of persistent: from the market resources, showing the resources in short supply is a temporary phenomenon, with the end of the meeting, limiting the production of lift, market resources will return to normal supply at the same time, cancel the effect will also be in the middle of that steel market reaches a new equilibrium, which is a in the current steel consumption of the high profits of the resolution. From the perspective of futures, the futures market rebound, but in the gradual restoration of premium, more than a single lock in profits out of technical rebound is limited, 3200 yuan / ton as the rebound in the end point to treat, so long not to see the gloomy. From the social inventory terms, from the beginning of this week, social stocks are rising signs.
Data show, Guangzhou building materials market share of social stock of 557 thousand and 400 tons, 60 thousand and 600 tons higher than in April, an increase of 12.20%. Visible, the market stock in the peak season effect, continue to increase, the probability is extremely high.
Through the above data analysis obviously, May price support elements of market trends upward and not sustainable in the long term, and we see the market prices need to dialectical view, at least to market fundamentals, with not high "blessing", the opportunity to intervene the market operator to select the appropriate, but also to select the appropriate point of departure. In a word, the whole, the market supply and demand contradiction level will highlight, while the band prices are facing the end of the inflection point of the night in early June.
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