Despite the current gap level is too large, rebar continues to decline, underpowered

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Source: Date:2017-06-14

1710 steel contracts in 3385 yuan / ton to last Friday's closing resistance down, dropping to the lowest 2906 yuan / ton, now price is still 3000 yuan / ton finishing oscillation, continued downward trend is more obvious. I thought, "one with a" international cooperation forum after the environmental factor for reducing the high profit per ton of steel rebar, making the start rate rising rapidly, and entered the cold season, need to end cost reduction, alleviate the social stock continued to reduce the lack of goods and nonstandard phenomenon. Hongkong recycling Electronics
Now Shanghai rebar spot price of 3650 yuan / ton, according to the production cost budget steel production costs 2644 yuan / ton, gross profit per ton reached a level of 1006 yuan, while a high profit continued is due to environmental factors and the ground of steel production capacity out of the formation of supply imbalance, the other one is the material end offer reduced continuously, the collapse of money form. But at this stage due to environmental protection weakened by the early environmental factors of production mills gradually began to resume production.
From 6 to August to spend the cold season, the need to reduce, mills will shut down for maintenance, in order to deal with the cost factors of poor season, but this year due to higher profit per ton of steel rebar, steel automatic production maintenance will be lack of power, full power production, when the operating rate will continue to rise.
Data show that in May iron ore imports 91 million 520 thousand tons, an increase of 5.5 percentage points, from 1 to May, imports of 444 million 570 thousand tons, 7.9% increase; last week, iron ore port stocks added 3 million 970 thousand tons, reaching 144 million 110 thousand tons, the amount of days to maintain high inventory, and now still can not see the change of iron ore amount of days of inventory variables, late supply the surface is still relatively loose.
Large and medium-sized domestic mills imported iron ore uniform inventory of available days remained at 22 days last week, the chain continued to equal, because first in the process of steel-making scrap added share, significantly for ore formation of iron ore to replace the role of the need to reduce. As a result, foreign mines and domestic mines continue to increase production, the formation of port stocks continued to rise. While the stock pressure continues to increase, the steel warehouse to maintain cautious mood, from a steel mill is also the lack of continued replenishment of the power, which will continue to create a weak offer.
In June, cross season MPA check makes the shopping malls tight liquidity, the Shanghai interbank offered rate for 1 years, the interest rate is still rising and rhythm, and 1 year loan interest rate basis appears upside down, it also shows that the mall money tight situation. One, the recent strengthening with tight funds expected, Beijing, Guangzhou and other places to start the first suite loan interest rate to 1 - 1.2 times the standard, all the purchase cost increase, highlighting the government regulation of the real estate will continue, which will inevitably affect the sale of real estate to add, suppression of rebar cost.
By June 9th, the rebar futures closing price of 3017 yuan / ton, compared to the national steel price to 3739 yuan / ton, Beijing rebar price is 3530 yuan / ton, Shanghai rebar price is 3610 yuan / ton, Beijing, Shanghai futures price and spot price spreads were 513 yuan, 593 yuan. Despite the recent micro data good, alleviate the market disappointed expectations, the current thread steel base has poor convergence, but is still in the depth of futures premium spot, it also reflects the market outlook on disappointed mood. Taking into account the 6 - August cold season arrival, supply and demand changes, the future spot offer weakness is still a probability event.
To sum up, now the iron ore remain weak, the shape of money continued to collapse. Plus the cost of cold season comes, the blast furnace operating rate increased, and steel stocks are rising continuously, restrain the rising power of the spot price. In addition, rising interest rates, real estate regulation is expected to strengthen, have adverse effects on the rebar futures price, although now the price level is too large, lack of power steel continued to decline, but with the weakening of the future supply and demand relationship, the probability of futures price weakness gradually increase.